Foresight Development

                 Scenario Development

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(click on Stonehenge)

Scenarios:

1. Are alternative "visions of possible futures" based on different evolutions of critical elements of a business, market, sector, etc.

2. Outline the implications of key uncertainties and tests the robustness of strategic choices

Purpose of scenarios:

1. Allows for explicit consideration of uncertainties & risk factors
2. Provides framework to prompt discussions about different views
3. Enables contingency planning to accompany strategic opportunity formulation

Scenarios are helpful in many situations when:

1. Costly surprises have occurred in the past
2. An industry, market, etc. has experienced significant change ... or is about to
3. There are strong differences of opinion with multiple opinions having merit
4. There are multiple paths forward with the associated risk of being unclear